Canada – Slovakia: What to expect?

A few days ago I said that Canada was by far the most talented team in the tournament and they showed it on Wednesday night by defeating Russia 7-3. Everyone talked about Russia’s high powered offense but they weren’t nearly as talented as Canada, and it showed. Russia’s top seven (Ovechkin, Malkin, Kovalchuk, Datsyuk, Semin, Markov and Gonchar) are all as good as Canada’s top players but the rest of the Russian team isn’t even comparable. There’s no one that compares to Canada in terms of talent but, as everyone knows, there’s one way to upset a better team in hockey: goaltending.

Jaroslav Halak has been very solid this season in the NHL and has continued his stellar play against the world’s best with a 0.923 save percentage in five games so far. Despite being young and relatively unknown, Halak has shown that he has the ability to win a game all by himself. Jonas Hiller almost did it early in the tournament, Ryan Miller had more offensive support but was still his team’s best player against Canada and now, Jaroslav Halak will get his chance. The difference between the last two games of the round robin tournament and tonight’s game for Canada is that they’ve had much more time to build chemistry and will make it much tougher on the Slovak defense and its 24-year old goalkeeper.

Canada can’t underestimate Slovakia’s ability to score some quick goals with the speedy Marian Gaborik as well as scoring leaders Marian Hossa and Pavol Demitra. Canada’s defense has been caught off guard a few times in this tournament and despite their lack of depth, Slovakia has a few players that have the speed to get a couple of breakaways and score quickly. I’m ashamed of myself for using such a cliché and saying that Canada will need to be disciplined but it’s especially true in this game. Slovakia has three or four excellent players who can be contained at even strength but if they get some time on the power play, one or two quick goals could put some pressure on the Canadian players.

Despite saying all that, I expect Canada to win this game relatively easily but you can be sure that Halak won’t let in four goals in the first period like Nabokov did. In my opinion, Canada will more than double Slovakia’s shots and come away with a 3 or 4 goals victory.

Shouldn’t Canada be winning easily?

Sunday’s loss to the United States was a shocker for most hockey fans and most are still trying to understand how it happens. Sure Miller played a great game and the Canadian players aren’t playing all that well together but when you compare the talent on both teams, it’s not even close. Here are the statistics in the NHL so far this year for both teams:

  GP G A PTS
Canada Forwards 764 311 421 732
Canada Defense 418 61 218 279
USA Forwards 762 235 352 587
USA Defense 406 28 147 175

At forward that’s a difference of 0.2 points per game and about 0.25 on defense. The difference of 109 goals between both teams is bigger than the difference between the top offense in the NHL (Capitals) and the worst (Bruins) which is only 98 goals. Add to that the difference in defensive talent and these two teams aren’t even close.

Canada isn’t playing nearly as well as they should and it’s not a huge surprise because they didn’t in 1998, 2002 (even though they won gold) and 2006 either. Canada has won 10 of the last 18 IIHF U20 Championships and probably would have won a couple more if they didn’t have so many U20 players in the NHL. So why doesn’t this success transfer over to the Olympics? The easy answer is the lack of chemistry but it can’t be the only reason. Sure players in the U20 Championships have more time to practice and NHL players obviously practice a lot more together but then how come Heatley, Thornton and Marleau or Getzlaf and Perry aren’t producing more? The best explanation I could find for Canada’s struggles is that hockey is a sport where upsets happen much more than in other sports. A team might have 10-15 scoring chances in a game and only score 3 or 4 goals but it only takes one to score a goal. If Brodeur hadn’t tried some sort of two-pad stack for no reason and if Miller hadn’t made a miraculous glove save with a few minutes left I probably wouldn’t be writing about this.

Good or bad upsets happen in hockey much more than in football or basketball and we have to live with it. Over an 82-game season or a 7-game series the best team will usually come out on top but in one game, anything can happen. The good news for Canada is that it happened in a game that didn’t matter; they just have to hope it doesn’t happen again.

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